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Phoenix Market Edition
Fall 2007
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Now more than ever, the Phoenix market needs experienced real estate consultants that are dedicated to providing insight into today’s tough housing market. That’s why one of the nation’s most trusted names in real estate consulting, Meyers Builder Advisors has expanded to open the Phoenix market office.
As the housing market continues to remain a challenge, it’s essential to take a fresh approach to solve today’s sales and inventory concerns. At Meyers Builder Advisors being a leading consulting and advisory practice isn’t a side business. To us, it’s the only business that can provide real-world solutions to the problems facing builders today.
“While the Phoenix market continues to struggle, there are still pockets of opportunity,” stated John Fioramonti, Senior Managing Director of the newly opened Phoenix office. “In the over 25 years I have worked in this industry, it’s more important than ever for builders to balance the basics while developing innovative products that homebuyers demand.”
John Fioramonti will be using his extensive real estate and development experience to provide insight for a wide range of construction and real estate professionals involving residential, commercial, and mixed-use properties and master-planned communities. At Meyers Builder Advisors, we look forward to bringing you a fresh perspective and contributing to the success of builders, developers, and lenders in the Phoenix housing market.imately 9,000 square feet to more than one acre. |
Homebuyers Desert the Phoenix Market
Phoenix Market by the Numbers
The Phoenix MSA continued its downward trend with the median new home price decreasing 4% over the last quarter, to $251,536. Furthermore, when compared to one year ago, the Phoenix MSA experienced a drop of nearly 10% in the median new home price. Annualized new home sales dropped 16% across the MSA with all regions experiencing declines. On a quarterly basis, sales in the Phoenix MSA were down 10% from the previous quarter and 28% lower when compared to the same time frame in 2006. Of the major cities in the Phoenix MSA, Chandler was the only city that saw an increase from the previous quarter in new home sales (up less than 1% however). As the median home price for new and existing homes continue to get closer to one another, look for new homes to become an increasingly attractive option for home buyers.
The resale market in the Phoenix MSA has also felt the decline in sales volume, although median prices remain flat. Annualized sales were down 36% for the Phoenix MSA when compared to resale levels seen one year ago, while the second quarter sales volume was down 29% compared to the prior year. Although resale volume in every region was off considerably from one year ago, each region experienced some increase in activity compared to the first quarter, and overall volume in the second quarter was up 4% from first quarter levels (although likely due to seasonality). Resale median home prices have remained steady for the last 4 quarters at $250,000. Of the four regions in the Phoenix MSA, only the Northeast region saw a slight increase in median home price from the previous quarter, rising roughly 3% to $275,000. Nearly every city in the MSA is experiencing drops in resale activity, with both high-end and entry-level communities feeling the effects of the slowing market.
With the recent sub-prime credit problems, mortgage underwriting guidelines have tightened, and fewer buyers are qualifying for loans. Factors such as home depreciation and the increasingly difficult task of selling one’s home continue to hamper the housing market as a whole. Buyers continue to be hesitant and cautious when purchasing homes with both new and resale home prices declining. Expect this trend to continue until sales activity resumes a more normal pace, home prices stabilize, and the sub-prime mortgage woes resolve themselves. New home buyers are long past the expectations of strong price appreciation as experienced through mid-2006 on their investment – now buyers are looking for small profit margins or homes just keeping their value in this current market.
MARKET WATCH: FINANCING ANALYSIS
Dealing with the Credit Crunch
There doesn’t seem to be a day that goes by without some newspaper headline touting the sub-prime mess and pending foreclosures. During the height of the recent housing market boom, just about anyone could get a mortgage, and many did with no money down. These no-down-payment loans flooded the market in 2005 and 2006, which allowed the lower-qualified end of the homebuying pool the ability to afford a home. According to Lehman Brothers, sub-prime loans represented approximately 20% of the mortgage market at the end of 2006. With the recent shutdown of many sub-prime lenders, the stricter credit guidelines that have resulted at traditional lending institutions, and declining home prices (which means minimal if any equity build-up in homes purchased in the past year or two), homeowners looking to refinance their current adjustable-rate loans will find it nearly impossible.
Rising levels of foreclosures will continue to put upward pressure on inventory and keep a lid on prices. The hardest hit areas for foreclosures will be in the more affordable markets, where a large percentage of recent homebuyers put no money down on their home and may have overextended themselves financially. According to RealtyTrac, one out of every 92 houses in Arizona is in some stage of foreclosure. A local company that tracks real estate data estimates Maricopa County foreclosures for the first half of 2007 were up a whopping 1,319% to 2,952 households. While an increase in foreclosures in Maricopa County was expected with the slowing housing market, the drastic increase was somewhat surprising. Delinquencies and foreclosures are expected to continue to increase through the next several years, as adjustable mortgage rates continue to reset. |
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Strategies to deal with tightening credit:
- Develop strong relationship with mortgage provider, whether in-house or 3rd-party
Provide lender representative on-site during peak sales times
- Design “out-of-the-box” financing opportunities using incentive dollars
- Market monthly payments (don’t just advertise $X towards closing costs but monthly payment costs lowered by incentives)
- Eliminate tie-in of incentives to an in-house lender (gives buyer ability to use alternative financing if in-house lender has stricter lending standards)
- List “Starting From” prices on signage to help draw in more qualified buyers (especially helpful in markets where there is a lot of competition)
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